Scientific and Spiritual Dimensions of Climate Change

A Study Course
Class 2

Impacts of Climate Change


Climate change is a global issue both in terms of its causes and of its consequences. Its impacts are persistent and long term, and will affect all areas of the world in different ways and to different degrees. In this and the next class we will explore some of the impacts of climate change.

In Class 4, you will learn about the causes of global warming more in depth. Now you just need to know the following:       

- Since the beginning of the 20th century, the planet has warmed about 0.8°C (1°F) i.
- The main reasons for the warming are the burning of fossil fuels (oil and coal) and deforestation, which are adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
- IPCC projections for the end of this century range from an increase of 1.8° to 4°C (3.2 to 7.2°F) depending on various emissions scenarios. More recent scientific research results are considerably higher and eliminate the lower range projections. ii


Section 1:  Melting of Glaciers and the Polar Ice Caps

Due to warmer temperatures, mountain glaciers all over the world are receding. The dramatic worldwide shrinking of the glaciers is one of the most visible evidences of global warming. Glaciers act as a kind of global fever thermometer. People and governments in many countries are alarmed.

Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa, lost one third of its ice within 12 years. iii About 82% of its icecap surveyed in 1912 is now gone. iv

In the Alps, the glaciers lost about 1/3 of their area and half of their volume between 1850 and 1975. Since then much more has melted. Switzerland went so far as to cover one of its most rapidly melting glaciers to slow down the loss. v

In the United States, the glaciers in “Glacier National Park” are retreating so quickly it has been estimated that they will vanish entirely by the year 2030." vi

In the Himalayas the dramatic receding of glaciers is most worrisome because of the large numbers of people affected. The ice and snow are a huge water reservoir, which feeds rivers during the summer. “Decline in river flows could affect 500 million people in South Asia and 250 millions in China.” vii

Many regions in the world depend on glacial water for irrigation, drinking water and hydropower. Shrinking glaciers could affect the water supply of hundreds of millions of people, at times producing destructive floods alternating with water shortages and droughts.

Most worrisome is that the polar ice caps began melting as well. The accelerating speed of their melting even surprised scientists who predicted the thawing. Between the 1960s and the 1990s, sea-ice depth in a large section of the Arctic Ocean declined by nearly 40%. viii  From 1979 to 2005, Arctic sea ice has shrunk roughly 250 million acres (1’011’714km2), an area the size of New York, Georgia, and Texas combined. ix   

“The most dramatic loss of ice in recent years has been the decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Between 1953 and 2006, the area covered by sea ice in September shrunk by 7.8 percent per decade, more than three times as fast as the average rate simulated by climate models. Researchers were further stunned in the summer of 2007 when Arctic sea ice extent plummeted to the lowest level ever measured, more than 20 percent below the 2005 record. This decline is rapidly changing the geopolitics of the Arctic region, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history and triggering a scramble among governments to claim large swaths of the potentially resource-rich Arctic sea floor. Many now believe the summer Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by 2030, decades earlier than previously thought possible.” x

The Greenland ice sheet is also melting. It holds enough water to raise sea levels worldwide by 7m (23 feet). xi "If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, the total disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could be set in motion in a matter of decades. Although the process could take centuries to fully play out, once begun it would be self-reinforcing, and hence virtually impossible to stop." xii

Even on the coldest continent, Antarctica, the effects of global warming have set in. The ice on East Antarctica still seems to be stable. But scientific research revealed that the temperature over West Antarctica has probably increased by 2°C (3.6°F) since 1950. Measurements on the much smaller Antarctic Peninsula showed temperature increases of up to 3°C (5.4°F). “The substantial warming on the Peninsula has been cited as a contributor to the dramatic breakup of a Rhode Island-sized portion of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002.” xiii  West Antarctica and the Arctic Peninsula are both contributors to sea level rise.

Why are the polar ice caps melting so fast? A major reason is the albedo effect: Snow and ice are best reflectors of solar radiation. They reflect about 70% of the sun's radiation (and absorb 30%). Water on the other hand is the worst reflector. It reflects only 6% of the sun's radiation and absorbs most of the heat (94%). The intense thawing of ice and snow creates more water surfaces. The warming of the water contributes to the regional rise in temperature, which again causes more ice to melt. This ice - albedo feedback is believed to be the major reason why the Arctic is warming so rapidly. xiv In addition, the melt water from the surface penetrates into the depths of the ice sheets. The process lubricates the ice sheets and accelerates their movement towards the sea.

Discussion:  Why should we be concerned about the melting of glaciers and of the polar ice caps? What could be some of the impacts on local people and cultures, on local ecosystems and on the world at large?


Section 2:  Sea Level Rise

There are two major reasons why sea levels have been rising:
1. When water warms up, its volume increases. This is called thermal expansion.
2. The melting of glaciers and especially of the polar ice caps adds huge amounts of freshwater to the oceans.

“Over the past 100 years, global sea level has risen by between 10 and 25cm (3.9 and 9.8 inches).” xv

The rate of global average sea level rise has risen from 1.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr from 1961 to 1993. This trend of accelerating sea level rise is expected to continue for many centuries.

The rising of sea levels will result in land and habitat loss in many countries. Bangladesh may lose almost 20% of its land area. Hundreds of coastal communities, Small Island states in the Pacific and Indian oceans and the Caribbean would be inundated, forcing their population to relocate. xvi

The low-lying island nation of Tuvalu, midway between Hawaii and Australia, is already pursuing plans to evacuate. Some inhabitants of Kiribati have already left their country and resettled in New Zealand and other places. xvii The atoll-based nation of the Maldives is also significantly at risk to disappear into the ocean.

The Impact of Climate Change on the MARSHALL ISLANDS: xviii
    "What would you do if you knew that your country was to disappear in the next two to three decades, and together with your country you would also lose your home, your culture, your way of life? This is what faces the people who live in the four atoll nations in the world - Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu located in the Pacific Ocean, and the Maldive Islands located in the Indian Ocean. These atolls will cease to exist in the next few decades as a result of sea level rise.

    The Marshall Islands is a country totally made up of atolls, which consist of more than a thousand individual islands. All these very small islands make up a total land area of only about 70 square miles spread out in an ocean area of over 750,000 square miles. Thus most of the country is the vast open ocean.

    Atolls are formed from the coral reefs that grow in warm tropical ocean waters. The foundation of atolls is made up of dead coral skeletons. Their formation took many millennia: As old corals died their skeletons remained, and other new corals grew on top of them, ever reaching for sunlight through the ocean water.  All atoll islands are flat and barely rise above high tide sea levels. Today the average elevation of the Marshall Islands is 7 feet (2.1m) above sea level, but in many places where people today are living the land surface at high tide is only one foot or less above the water line.

    The people of the Marshall Islands developed a very close knit, cooperative, and community-oriented culture that has assured their survival for at least two millennia. They have developed fine-tuned ways of getting along in very small spaces with extremely limited resources, which could bear well for the rest of the world’s people to learn.

    As sea levels are rising because of climate change, the inhabitants of these islands will lose their home. What will happen to their language that describes so well this environment of an atoll, with numerous words describing in detail the various daily and seasonal phases of the ocean tides, or the stages of the development of a new coconut, or the detailed descriptions of the ocean currents, which are used to navigate around the vast expanses of ocean? What will happen to the people, to their way of life, their cohesiveness, their understanding of how to get along in such isolated circumstances? What about their cultures?  And finally, what will happen to their enthusiasm for life, their laughter, their amazing generosity, their ways of being all inclusive towards everyone, their gentleness - their “spirits”?

    Now put yourself in their circumstances: total devastation of your way of life, caused by the actions and life styles of others, and totally out of your control to change or stop this destruction! How does this make you feel?  What are the spiritual implications?  Where is justice?”

Experts with the United Nations University predict that rising sea levels and environmental deterioration will displace as many as 50 million people by 2010. Yet the greatest cost of rising sea levels will not be the loss of land but the inevitable disruption of communities and cultures that cannot be replicated elsewhere. xix

However, in the more distant future, that is later on this century and beyond, hundreds of millions of people will become displaced if sea levels will rise a few meters. Many important, historical cities around the world like Venice, New Orleans, and Amsterdam will be lost to the ocean.

Discussion: What are the two reasons why sea levels have been rising? Which areas of the world are most at risk? What is the danger with continuous sea level rise in the future?


Section 3:  Water Scarcity

“Water flows from high in the mountains,
Water runs deep in the Earth.
Miraculously, water comes to us, and sustains all life.”  xx   
Thich Nhat Hanh

In our physical existence, water is essential for life. That's one of the reasons why it is used so often in spiritual writings as a metaphor. In nearly all the world's major religions water plays an important role as a symbol and in ceremonies.

In the Baha'i Writings we often read about the water of life. It usually refers to the revelation of the Word of God to humankind. Our spiritual life depends on it. Read and meditate for a moment on this prayer by Baha'u'llah:

“My God, my Adored One, my King, my Desire! What tongue can voice my thanks to Thee? I was heedless, Thou didst awaken me. I had turned back from Thee, Thou didst graciously aid me to turn towards Thee. I was as one dead, Thou didst quicken me with the water of life. I was withered, Thou didst revive me with the heavenly stream of Thine utterance which hath flowed forth from the Pen of the All-Merciful.
O Divine Providence! All existence is begotten by Thy bounty; deprive it not of the waters of Thy generosity, neither do Thou withhold it from the ocean of Thy mercy. I beseech Thee to aid and assist me at all times and under all conditions, and seek from the heaven of Thy grace Thine ancient favor. Thou art, in truth, the Lord of bounty, and the Sovereign of the kingdom of eternity.”  xxi

Now, let’s examine some issues of the tangible water: Globally, water is scarce and demand is growing. “Many millions of people around the world face water shortages and a daily struggle to secure safe water for their basic needs.” xxii

“People who fall ill from waterborne diseases can't work. Women and girls who travel hours, sometimes more than seven hours a day, to fetch clean water for their families can't go to school or hold on to a job. Without proper sanitation, human waste pollutes waterways and wildlife habitat. Global warming and population pressures are drying up water supplies and instigating conflict over scarce resources.” xxiii

The amount of freshwater is finite while demand is increasing. “One billion people around the world don't have access to clean, safe water. In developing nations, waterborne illnesses like cholera, typhoid and malaria kill 5 million people each year -- 6,000 children every day.  And global warming is exacerbating this crisis as severe, prolonged droughts dry up water supplies in arid regions and heavy rains cause sewage overflows.” xxiv

In Africa, by 2020, 75 to 250million people are projected to be exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change. xxv

In many parts of the world, lakes are shrinking or disappearing and rivers are running dry. Lake Chad, for example, has shrunk by 95% since about 1960. This had disastrous consequences for the local population. The main causes are the diversion of water for irrigation and less rainfall because of climate change. Many large rivers like the Yellow River, the Colorado River or the Nile don't reach the ocean anymore. xxvi

Reduced water availability from glaciers
Water availability will sharply decline in regions that depend on melt water from glaciers. More than one-sixth of the world's population will be affected. xxvii     

The Himalayan region is predicted to be one of the areas hardest hit by climate change. “In addition to the loss of water and hydroelectricity supply following glacial shrinkage, the Himalayas are expected to experience sudden and catastrophic flooding resulting from glacial lakes overwhelming their gravel moraine dams; decreased crop production resulting from erratic weather conditions; and the loss of numerous high altitude species unable to adapt to warmer conditions. Just one of these effects – decreased water available for downstream communities – could affect billions of people in India, China and South Asia, where water supply is dependent on rivers that originate in the Himalayas. If weather patterns change and the glaciers decline, so does the water supply, fundamental to human health and sanitation, agriculture, and industry, not to mention the lives of countless other living beings.” xxviii

One example is the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan. It is a mountainous developing country where the economy is based on tourism and hydropower sales to nearby India. Officials are concerned about the effect of climate change on the glaciers that supply the rivers. An adviser to Bhutan’s National Environment Commission recently announced that climate change could affect India’s power supply, along with much else, because the Himalayan glaciers are predicted to decline precipitously by 2030. In a country that began modern economic development only 40 years ago, climate change could have a catastrophic effect on the well-being of Bhutan’s people, along with the myriad wildlife and vast forests that make Bhutan one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots.

Water and Food
“The link between water and food is strong. We each drink on average nearly 4 liters of water per day in one form or another, while the water required to produce our daily food totals at least 2,000 liters—500 times as much. This helps explain why 70 percent of all water use is for one purpose—irrigation.” xxix

Aquifers are over-pumped in many countries. “There are two types of aquifers: replenishable and nonreplenishable (or fossil) aquifers. Most of the aquifers in India and the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain are replenishable. When these are depleted, the maximum rate of pumping is automatically reduced to the rate of recharge.

For fossil aquifers, such as the vast U.S. Ogallala aquifer, the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer, depletion brings pumping to an end. Farmers who lose their irrigation water have the option of returning to lower-yield dry land farming if rainfall permits. In more arid regions, however, such as in the southwestern United States or the Middle East, the loss of irrigation water means the end of agriculture.” xxx

The U.S. embassy in Beijing reports that wheat farmers in some areas are now pumping from a depth of 300 meters (nearly 1,000 feet). Pumping water from this far down raises pumping costs so high that farmers are often forced to abandon irrigation and return to less productive dry land farming. xxxi

Changes in precipitation patterns are observed in many parts of the world. The timing and amount of rain are very important for crops. Farmers need to adapt and learn how to do things differently, for example plant different seeds, or different crops, or plant them at a different time of the year.

Discussion: Why is water so important? Summarize some of the reasons why water supply is scarce. Why does climate change exacerbate water scarcity?

REFERENCES
i     Dire Predictions – Understanding Global Warming, The illustrated guide to the findings of the IPCC, by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, p. 36
ii    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/39207
iii   http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/ 
iv   Impact of Climate Change on Life in Africa, Paul V. Desanker, Ph. D
v    (Andermatt, 2005),  (Haeberli, Wilfried, Hoelzle, Martin, Maisch, Max, Gletscher - Schlüsselindikatoren der globalen Klimaänderung, in: Lozàn, José L., Graßl, Hartmut, Hupfer, Peter, Warnsignal Klima -Wissenschaftliche Fakten, Hamburg, 1998, p. 213).
vi   Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 13
vii  1 December 2008 – Speech by Mr Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC Chairman, at the Opening Ceremony of the UNFCCC COP 14, Poznán, http://www.ipcc.ch/press/popup_news2.htm
viii Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 27
ix   Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 26
x    February 4, 2008,Ice Melt Accelerates Around the World, Frances C. Moore  http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2008.htm
xi   Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 52
xii  Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 55
xiii   “Antarctica and Climate Change” by Andrew Monaghan, published in World Watch Volume 22, Number 1, January/February 2009
xiv   Plan B 3 by Lester R. Brown p.58
xv    Small Island States Threatened by Sea Level Rise, Vital Signs 2003, pp. 84-45
xvi   Small Island States Threatened by Sea Level Rise, Vital Signs 2003, pp. 84-45
xvii  (for more info, see http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/449/index.html  click on Paradise Lost video)
xviii Story written by Carol Curtis
xix   Repercussions of a Melting Planet, Stephanie Kung – September 4, 2006, http://www.sustainabilityed.org/what/education_for_sustainability/index.html
xx    Earth Prayers from around the World,  p. 154, edited by Elizabeth Roberts and Elias Amidon, 1991
xxi   Prayers and Meditations by Bahá’u’lláh CLXXIII, p. 264-265
xxii  Kofi Annan, Un Secretary-General, 22 March 2005
xxiii  Adapted from: Natural Resources Defense Council, http://www.nrdc.org/international/safewater.asp
xxiv  Natural Resources Defense Council, http://www.nrdc.org/international/safewater.asp
xxv   IPCC Report WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
xxvi  information from Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown p. 41
xxvii  information from: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, Summary for Policymakers, p. 7
xxviii  Religious Communities and the Climate Crisis By Elizabeth Allison
http://bl134w.blu134.mail.live.com/mail/ReadMessageLight.aspx?FolderID=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&InboxSortAscending=False&InboxSortBy=Date&ReadMessageId=ee490b99-2e07-4fc9-a6ea-1b63b063bf61&n=707372957#Focus%20on%20the%20Web
xxix    Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown p. 42
xxx     Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown p. 42/43
xxxi    Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown p. 44

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Last updated 9 November 2009
© Christine Muller and International Environment Forum