Class 3 - More Impacts of Climate Change

Scientific and Spiritual Dimensions of Climate Change

A Study Course

Class 3

More Impacts of Climate Change

Section 4: More Extreme Weather Events and Changes in Weather Patterns

Many regional temperature changes have already been observed: Since 1950, in many regions of the world, records show a decrease in the number of very cold days and nights and an increase in the number of extremely hot days and warm nights. Spring starts earlier in the Northern Hemisphere than it used to a few decades ago.ⁱ

Although climate change is a reality all over the globe, the warming is not evenly distributed. At the poles, for example, climate change is already occurring at an accelerating pace. While the world as a whole warmed about 0.6°C (1°F) over the entire 20^th century, parts of the Arctic have warmed by 3.2° - 4.0°C (4° to 5°F) just since the 1950s. The Arctic continues to warm at a rate about twice as fast as the rest of the world. Scientists, as well as the indigenous people of the Arctic, have noticed dramatic changes that have affected ecosystems and wildlife, and the way of life of indigenous peoples. ⁱⁱ

Changes in precipitation (rain and snow) are already occurring in many regions of the world. It has become significantly wetter in eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but drier in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and southern Asia. There is less snow and more rainfall in northern regions. Widespread increases in heavy precipitation events have been observed, even in places where the total amount of precipitation has decreased. These changes are associated with increased water vapor in the atmosphere arising from the warming of the world's oceans, especially in the lower latitudes. There are also increases in some regions in the occurrence of both droughts and floods. ⁱⁱⁱ Europe, for example has been suffering from both droughts and floods in the past years.

The severity of extreme weather conditions is increasing. “As sea surface temperatures rise, particularly in the tropics and subtropics, the additional heat radiating into the atmosphere causes more destructive storms.” ^iv “The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years. The change occurred as global sea-surface temperatures have increased over the same period.” ^v

“More powerful storms mean more damage. At this point, no one knows quite how this trend will unfold in the twenty-first century, but it seems likely that if we continue with business as usual and CO₂ levels continue to rise, the destructiveness in the future will dwarf that in the present—just as the destructiveness in the present is far greater than that of the recent past. The risk is that the cost of coping with these ever more destructive, human-induced catastrophes could overwhelm some societies, leading to their economic decline.” ^vi

Discussion: Did you observe any changes in climate in your region? Or have you heard personal reports from people who were affected by a change in climate in another part of the world?

Section 5: Soil Erosion and Desertification, its Effects on Agriculture and Food

"The thin layer of topsoil that covers the planet’s land surface is the foundation of civilization. This soil was formed over long stretches of geological time as new soil formation exceeded the natural rate of erosion. As soil accumulated over the eons, it provided a medium in which plants could grow. In turn, plants protect the soil from erosion. Human activity is disrupting this relationship.

"Sometime within the last century, soil erosion began to exceed new soil formation in large areas. The accelerating soil erosion can be seen in the dust bowls that form as vegetation is destroyed and wind erosion soars out of control. Among those that stand out are the Dust Bowl in the U.S. Great Plains during the 1930s, the dust bowls in the Soviet Virgin Lands in the 1960s, the huge one that is forming today in northwest China, and the one taking shape in the Sahelian region of Africa. Each of these is associated with a familiar pattern of overgrazing, deforestation, and agricultural expansion onto marginal land, followed by retrenchment as the soil begins to disappear. ...

"The 2 to 3 billion tons of fine soil particles that leave Africa each year in dust storms are slowly draining the continent of its fertility and, hence, its biological productivity. In addition, dust storms leaving Africa travel westward across the Atlantic, depositing so much dust in the Caribbean that they cloud the water and damage coral reefs there. ...

"Ethiopia, a mountainous country with highly erodible soils on steeply sloping land, is losing an estimated 1 billion tons of topsoil a year, washed away by rain. This is one reason Ethiopia always seems to be on the verge of famine, never able to accumulate enough grain reserves to provide a meaningful measure of food security.” ^vii

Climate change will exacerbate soil degradation in many parts of the world. In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinization and desertification of agricultural land. ^viii

"By 2025, Africa could lose as much as two-thirds of its arable land compared with 1990, and there could be declines of one-third in Asia and one-fifth in South America. Migration – from the Sahelian regions to the West African coast, from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, from Mexico to the United States – will be an inevitable consequence as poor people are driven off their land." ^ix

In some countries in Africa, agricultural yields could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. ^x

Higher temperatures take a great toll on agriculture. “More people on the planet depend on rice than on any other crop. Rice plants react very quickly to temperature change: they show a 10 percent drop in yield for every 1ºC rise in minimum temperature. In parts of the Philippines, farmers have had to stop growing rice completely during the droughts caused by the ‘El Nino’ years, and river delta and coastal rice production has already suffered badly across South-East Asia because of storms that overwhelm sea defenses and salt-water intrusion into paddy fields. An Asian Development Bank report warns that rice production in the Philippines could drop by 50–70 per cent as early as 2020.” ^xi

Although higher harvests can be expected in some northern areas because of the fertilization effect of more CO₂, world wide, agriculture will be severely affected and global food production will decline. And we already have a problem with hunger: “More than 800 million people worldwide suffer from malnutrition. About 24,000 people die every day as a result.” ^xii Since 2002, when Kofi Annan made this statement, a global food crisis has started to emerge. There are many reasons for it: The high price of oil (which will continue to increase as oil resources are being depleted), the diversion of good agricultural land to grow plants for bio-fuels, environmental degradation of agricultural lands, declining fisheries, and last, but not least, climate change impacts, especially droughts, heat waves, floods and unpredictable changes in precipitation patterns. “Climate-related hunger could be the defining human tragedy of this century.” ^xiii

Discussion: Why is there widespread soil erosion and desertification? What are the consequences for agriculture and people? What’s the impact of climate change on soils and plants?

Section 6: Deforestation

“Cut down the forest of desire, not the forest of trees.” ^xiv The Buddha

Forests play a vital role in maintaining the balance of the Earth's ecosystems. They provide habitat for more than half of all species living on land, help filter pollutants out of the air and water, and prevent soil erosion. Rainforests are essential for the regional climate as they cycle water to the interior of a continent. The shrinking of the Amazon Rainforest reduces rainfall, which in turn threatens the health of the remaining forest and of the agricultural land in Southern Brazil.

Forests also play a major role in regulating global temperatures by absorbing heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, and storing the carbon in the form of wood and vegetation – a process referred to as “carbon sequestration”.
Unfortunately, the global benefits provided by trees are threatened by deforestation. Earth loses more than 18 million acres of forestland every year—an area larger than Ireland—according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).^xv

Deforestation is a major cause of global warming. When trees are burned, their stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere. As a result, tropical deforestation is responsible for about 20 percent of total annual global warming emissions, making it second only to fossil fuels in terms of climate impact. The reasons for the immense deforestation are all economic, for example logging, clearing land for agriculture, and the production of bio-fuels for cars.

“The tropical deforestation in Asia is driven primarily by the fast-growing demand for timber. In Latin America, by contrast, the growing demand for soybeans and beef is deforesting the Amazon. In Africa, it is mostly the gathering of fuelwood and the clearing of new land for agriculture as existing cropland is degraded and abandoned. Two countries, Indonesia and Brazil, account for more than half of all deforestation.” ^xvi

At the same time, forests that have so far escaped deforestation are now threatened by climate change: In many regions of the world, more trees will die because of increasing insect infestations and forest fires. ^xvii (More insects are surviving milder winters.) “Wildfires have been on the rise worldwide for half a century. Every decade since the 1950s has seen an increase in major wildfires in the United States and around the world.” ^xviii

In addition to the environmental devastation, forest fires directly affect the lives of people. In the 2007 wildfires in Southern California, 900,000 people were displaced. ^xix “The total area affected by forest fires in the western US has increased by more than a factor of six in the past two decades.” ^xx

Tropical rainforests, rich in biodiversity, are suffering from warmer temperatures and less rainfall, both caused by climate change. In the past, rainforests were a sink for CO₂. Now with hotter temperatures, their growth is impeded, and some are actually emitting CO₂. ^xxi

If climate change is not mitigated, rainforests will not be able to survive. “If the IPCC's most severe projection comes true, much of the Amazon rainforest will transform into savannah.” ^xxii

Discussion: What is the significance of forests for the climate system? Besides their role of absorbing CO₂, what other important environmental services do forests provide? How are forests threatened today?

Section 7: Loss of Biodiversity, Changes in Ecosystems

“Diversity of hues, form and shape, enricheth and adorneth the garden, and heighteneth the effect thereof.” ^xxiii ‘Abdu’l-Bahá

Until now, the major reason for species extinction was the loss of habitat. Now, climate change poses an even greater threat. We can already observe how species are moving towards the poles or up the mountains. In Britain, the comma butterfly, for example, expands its territory northwards, about 80km (50 miles) per decade. ^xxiv

Changes can be quite dramatic. In the Arctic, for example, suddenly robins and mosquitoes appeared that were previously unknown there.

Many plants and animals cannot move or evolve quickly enough to adjust to the new climate conditions; so they die out. In fact, climate change has already caused the extinction of some species: The Golden Toad, for example, disappeared when reduced precipitation in the Monteverde cloud forests dried out the shallow pools where eggs were laid and tadpoles developed. ^xxv

“Approximately 20 – 30% of plant and animal species are at increased risk of extinction if increases in the global average temperature exceed 1.5 – 2.5° C (2.7 – 4.5°F).” ^xxvi

We hope that we can prevent that much of a temperature increase. However, if we continue with business as usual, temperatures will increase even more than that, which could result in catastrophic species extinctions of between 40 – 70% by the end of this century.

Each extinct species is a loss for humanity. We will not be able to use these species for the development of new crops or for the research of new medicines and treatments. Furthermore, species extinctions create holes in the web of life, which disrupt the ecological balance and have far-reaching negative impacts on directly and indirectly connected species. Moreover, each species has intrinsic value that cannot be measured by a one-sided utilitarian approach. Our extermination of our fellow inhabitants of Earth raises strong moral questions.

Whole ecosystems can get out of balance. Here is just one example: The water of Rhode Island's Narragansett Bay warmed about 1°C (1.8°F) on average since 1970. This caused a surge in the population of the comb jellyfish. Although these creatures are quite beautiful in their blue iridescence and cause no safety risk to swimmers, they can become a serious threat to the balance of the bay's ecosystem. First of all, the comb jelly devours eggs and larvae that other fish eat reducing the food available to native fish causing their populations to decline. In addition, the jellyfish also eat a lot of zooplankton, which are an important consumer of phytoplankton. Fewer zooplankton causes the smaller phytoplankton to multiply which ultimately leads to a large mass of phytoplankton falling to the bottom of the bay and decomposing. During this process the bacteria devouring the phytoplankton consume so much oxygen that oxygen levels in the water drop substantially. This can have catastrophic consequences causing the death of millions of fish. ^xxvii

The ecosystems that are most threatened by climate change are wetlands, mountainous regions, coral reefs, mangroves, and tropical rain forests. In the long term, all ecosystems will be affected by climate change.

Discussion: Have you seen a species or an ecosystem that is endangered by global warming?

Section 8: Ocean Acidification

Oceans have absorbed at least a quarter of our carbon dioxide emissions. This absorption of CO₂ has been very helpful for us humans because it reduced CO₂ in the atmosphere and, as a consequence, reduced the warming we have witnessed so far. However, as the gas dissolves in the water it produces carbonic acid. “The acidity of ocean surface waters has increased by 30 percent since the 17th century.” ^xxviii Such a change in ocean chemistry is significant and has long-term effects:

“ Typically, seawater is heavily saturated with dissolved calcium carbonate from eroded limestone. This neutralizes any acid that forms from CO₂ and leaves plenty of carbonate for marine creatures to use for shell- and reef-building. But as oceans absorb increasing amounts of CO₂ from fossil fuels, their stores of calcium carbonate dip. Over time, this reduces carbonate available for marine creatures. Shell and coral formation slows.” ^xxix Existing shells can even dissolve. Many ocean creatures depend on calcium carbonate. The most spectacular ones are the corals, which will not be able to survive if the current trend of acidification continues. This problem may have even wider implications, because some zooplanktons are also affected. They are at the basis of the marine food web. This means that many fish and other animals are also threatened by the increasing acidification of the oceans.

As with many other effects of climate change, scientists are extremely concerned to see that these changes progress much faster than anticipated, and that human emissions of greenhouse gases increase faster than predicted.

Section 9: Effects on Human Health

There are several direct and many indirect effects of climate change on human health. Most obvious is the threat of heat waves. During the European heat wave in 2003, almost 35,000 people died. ^xxx Such extreme weather events will become more frequent, prolonged and severe. Vector born diseases are becoming more widespread because more insects survive the milder winters. Lyme disease is spreading, and so is Malaria. Malaria transmitting mosquitoes are multiplying in areas that get more rain and floods, and they are spreading to higher altitudes and latitudes because of warmer temperatures. “It is estimated that climate change has contributed to an average of 150,000 more deaths from disease per year since the 1970s, with over half of those happening in Asia.” ^xxxi Allergy causing ragweed is producing more pollen because of warmer temperature and the fertilization effect of CO₂.

The biggest effect on global health will most likely be the more indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and economic and social instability.

Section 10: Multiple Stresses

Often, a plant, an animal or a whole ecosystem is affected by more than one problem. Let's look at the example of coral reefs: They have been suffering from chemical runoff from agriculture, mainly fertilizers and pesticides. Then marine pollution has been an additional burden. Now with global warming, water temperatures are increasing. Corals are very sensitive to temperature rises. On top of that comes the acidification of the ocean. All these factors combined have contributed to coral bleaching (dying of coral reefs). “Unless significant measures are taken to reduce the stress on coral reefs from human activities, 60% of the world’s coral reefs may die by the year 2050.” ^xxxii

Not only plants and animals are affected by a combination of environmental stresses. Unfortunately, people are also suffering from multiple stresses in many parts of the world, for example from the combined disasters of soil erosion, water scarcity and poverty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated, “Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity.” ^xxxiii

Discussion: Do you know a country or a region where people are suffering from multiple stresses including climate change?

Section 11: Conflicts over Natural Resources

Degradation of freshwaters, decline in food production, energy issues, increase in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration are all potential causes for conflict. ^xxxiv “A global population predicted to increase to about 9 billion by the mid-21st century, combined with stresses on water, land, and food resources could create the ‘perfect storm.’” ^xxxv

“The most recent IPCC report says scores of countries will face war for scarce land, food and water as global warming increases. More than 60 nations, mainly in the Third World, are likely to have existing tensions exacerbated by the struggle for diminishing resources. Others now at peace - including China, the United States and even parts of Europe - are expected to be plunged into conflict. Even those not directly affected will be threatened by a flood of hundreds of millions of 'environmental refugees'.

The threat is worrying world leaders. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said: ‘In coming decades, changes in the environment - and the resulting upheavals, from droughts to inundated coastal areas - are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict.’" ^xxxvi

These conflicts could happen at the local, national, regional or international level. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon sees a direct link between the social and political unrest in Darfur and its roots in an ecological crisis, at least partly attributable to climate change. Thousands of people have died or been driven from their homes in the Darfur region of Sudan. Ban writes: "Two decades ago, the rains in southern Sudan began to fail. ... Scientists at first considered this to be an unfortunate quirk of nature. But subsequent investigation found that it coincided with a rise in temperatures of the Indian Ocean, disrupting seasonal monsoons. This suggests that the drying of sub-Saharan Africa derives, to some degree, from man-made global warming." ^xxxvii

Massive migrations and shortages of resources have the potential to cause political instability, which may overwhelm many poor countries and result in many more failed states.

Discussion: How does climate change contribute to scarcity of resources and to human conflicts?

Now that you are familiar with some of the impacts of climate change you will be able to understand the following general remarks on a deeper level:

"Climate Change is a real thing. It's not something dramatic now - that's why people don't really react. But it will be dramatic for our children and our children's children - the risk is too big not to care." ^xxxviii

Konrad Steffen

"Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue, it is a looming humanitarian catastrophe." ^xxxix Catherine Pearce

REFERENCES

i    IPCC Report 2007, WG 1 Frequently Asked Questions 3.1
ii    Pew Center on Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/arctic_qa.cfm#1
iii    IPCC 2007, WG1, Frequently Asked Questions 3.2
iv    http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Eco/EEch2_ss5.htm
v    according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Science Foundation: http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=104428
vi    http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Eco/EEch2_ss5.htm
vii    Adapted from Chapter 5, “Natural Systems Under Stress,” in Lester R.Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006), available on-line at http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB2/index.htm
viii    IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 12
ix    http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0621/p10s01-wogi.htm, http://www.terradaily.com/2007/070615023018.6zxs5ha8.html
x    IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 10
xi    “Suffering the Science - Climate Change, People and Poverty”, a report by Oxfam International, July 2009
xii    H.E. Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations - 10 June 2002
xiii     Report by Oxfam International :Suffering the Science - Climate Change, People and Poverty” http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2009-07-06/millions-face-climate-related-hunger-seasons-shift-and-change
xiv    The Buddha, Dhammapada
xv    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/09/forestsmart_buy.php
xvi    Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Earth Policy Institute, 2008) From Chapter 8. Restoring the Earth PLANTING TREES TO SEQUESTER CARBON
xvii    IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 13
xviii    “Hell and High Water, Global Warming – the Solution and the Politics – and What We Should Do” by Joseph Romm, p. 55
xix    Info from the Environmental Defense Fund APR '08
xx    “Dire Predictions – Understanding Global Warming”, the illustrated guide to the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, p. 135
xxi    info: Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (NY: W.W. Norton & Co., 2006), From Chapter 1. Entering a New World
xxii    Ban Ki Moon, Valencia, Spain, 17 November 2007 - Secretary-General's address to the IPCC upon the release of the Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report
xxiii    Selections From the Writings of ‘Abdu’l-Bahá, section 225, p. 291
xxiv    Info from: Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert
xxv    Info from: Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 81-82
xxvi    IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 6, 2007
xxvii    info from: Warming of Bay Waters a Bad Sign, Scientists Say, South County Independent Aug. 3, 2006
xxviii    “Rising Acidity Is Threatening Food Web of Oceans, Science Panel Says” by Cornelia Dean, published: January 30, 2009, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/31/science/earth/31ocean.html?_r=3&emc=eta1
xxix    “World’s oceans turning acidic fast” by Peter N. Spotts, Christian Science Monitor, Dec. 19, 2008 http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/18/world%E2%80%99s-oceans-turning-acidic-faster-than-expected/
xxx    “Dire Predictions – Understanding Global Warming”, the illustrated guide to the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, p. 132
xxxi     http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2009-07-06/millions-face-climate-related-hunger-seasons-shift-and-change
xxxii    “Dire Predictions – Understanding Global Warming”, the illustrated guide to the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, p. 115
xxxiii    IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 10
xxxiv    Info from a new report, entitled Climate Change as a Security Risk, has been prepared by the German Advisory Council on Global Change drawing on the work of international experts and organizations including UNEP.
xxxv    “Dire Predictions – Understanding Global Warming”, the illustrated guide to the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, p. 129
xxxvi    http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/320929_secured.html
xxxvii    http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0621/p10s01-wogi.htm (citing a column in The Washington Post)
xxxviii    Konrad Steffen, Field Notes from a Catastrophe, Elizabeth Kolbert p. 58
xxxix    Catherine Pearce, the Friends of the Earth International's climate campaigner, as quoted in Climate wars loom over scarce resources By Michael McCarthy, Stephen Castle and Edwin Naidu
http://www.int.iol.co.za/general/news/newsprint.php?art_id=vn20070408092647243C506547&sf=

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Last updated 9 November 2009
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