Home About IEF Conferences Newsletter Resources e-learning centre on sustainable development IEF SUSTAPEDIA AN ENCYCLOPEDIA OF SUSTAINABILITY

There were concerns about food security in the mid-1990s, when world grain reserves fell to their lowest level ever, a 48 day supply, at the start of 1995 because of three years of poor harvests and rising demand in developing countries experiencing rapid economic growth, such as China, where meat eating is increasing and more grain is going to feed livestock.  The next few harvests succeeded in rebuilding reserves allowing food production to keep ahead of demand, as most assessments suggested (Brown et al., 1996; Kleiner, 1996; WRI/UNEP/UNDP/WB, 1996). World cereal production increased somewhat in 1996, raising 1997 global cereal stocks to 281 million tonnes.  This gave a ratio of stocks to utilization of 15%, up from 14% in 1996 but was still well below the 17-18% considered by FAO to be the security range (FAO, 1997). Governments then lost interest in food security, and investments in agricultural research diminished.

The sudden and steep rise in food prices in mid-2007, followed by a surge of 51% between January and August 2008 led to food riots in many places as food was priced out of reach of the poor. Since then, prices have fallen again by 50%, due in part to the financial crisis and the drop in world crude oil prices. However in the medium to long term, prices are expected to remain high. "Supply and demand dynamics, high fuel prices, global threats such as climate change, water stress and scarcity and natural resource degradation are expected to keep food prices well above their 2004 levels, posing a continuing challenge for the global community." (High Level Task Force, 2008)

In the longer term perspective, an expert study estimated that the world is approaching the limits of global food production capacity based on present technologies.  Its most optimistic projection suggests that a doubling of food production by 2050 might be technically feasible, and this could feed 7.8 billion people if grain is largely used as human food and not for animals.  A likely higher level of population growth, or a failure of sufficient commitment to increase food supplies around the world, will create severe problems for a major part of the world population (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994).  The pessimistic assumptions seem more likely, as present per capita food production is stagnating if not declining, and some crops may be close to biological and environmental limits. Already 700 million people experience endemic hunger, not counting those added by natural disasters (Serageldin, 1995).

One result of rising grain prices and concerns over food security is an expected reduction or elimination of land idling requirements, bringing such land back into production (Johnson, 1995).  However, significant areas are also being lost to production through land degradation, erosion and salinization.  For instance, China is losing 130,000 ha of arable land a year, representing 6 million tonnes of grain production (Chen, 1995).  Also, the growing problem of water scarcity is leading to conflicts between demand for human consumption, especially in urban areas, and agricultural uses, with agriculture generally losing out.  This reduction in water available for irrigation will affect agricultural productivity and could reduce the ability of water-scarce countries to feed their populations (WRI/UNEP/UNDP/WB, 1996).

While the Green Revolution increased grain production and helped avoid famine, it has led to nutritional problems.  Present high-yield varieties are usually low in minerals and vitamins, so many people saved from starvation have been incapacitated instead by iron, zinc, vitamin A and other deficiencies, as new diets replace traditional dietary sources.  Iron deficiency has worsened globally, affecting 1.5 billion children, and half of all pregnant women are anaemic.  The worst fall has been in South and South-east Asia where the Green Revolution has been most successful  (Welch et al., 1996; UN, 1992).  The Green Revolution has also required a continuing or even increasing use of hazardous pesticides and environmentally damaging fertilizers.  The need to reduce these inputs to achieve more sustainable agriculture may also reduce levels of food production.